Have I told you lately?

Today, I’ve been writing my lovely new book and reading student work, not to mention watching a bit of the Snooker world championship. My Beloved pointed out that snooker is a bit like the election, in that the players spend much of their time trying to make life difficult for their opponents, rather than doing anything positive. One exception to this rule is Kirsty Williams, leader of the Liberal Democrats in Wales (and our local AM). At the conclusion of the Welsh leaders’ debate last night, all the others tried to snooker their opponents with negative messages; only Kirsty went for the pot (excuse the extended metaphor) and actually said something positive.

But I’ve also been dickering around on political betting sites. There are lots, and in previous elections, they have been a more accurate pointer towards the result than the polls. The spread is beginning to point to a very narrow majority for the Tories. But look at this site; FiveThirtyEight. This is an American site which does very well at predicting US elections, and has taken a particular interest in the UK election this time around. It makes fascinating reading. And one scenario has Cameron getting the most seats,  refusing to go into coalition with the Lib Dems, and trying to form a minority administration. Which means that he could well be highly reliant on the Ulster parties, as I’ve already argued elsewhere on my blog.

And lo! Where is David due to campaign tomorrow? That’s right; he’s going to Belfast. He’s desperately trying to get out the mainstream Ulster Unionist vote; and he must stand a chance. I mean, would you vote for Peter Robinson, after the extraordinary events of Irisgate? And if the result is really narrow, Cameron really could be relying on Lady Sylvia Hermon, as I’ve also argued. So here’s a song from The Belfast Cowboy that Mr Cameron had better start learning to sing, not just to Lady Sylvia, but to Unionists everywhere….

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~ by Ian Marchant on May 3, 2010.

3 Responses to “Have I told you lately?”

  1. It’s 6.24 am, and here I am, right up to the minute
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8658738.stm
    So Cameron might not get to Belfast after all..

  2. And see this touching display of humanity.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8658679.stm
    Shame Broon didn’t think of offering the Treasury cleaners a living wage when he was Chancellor.
    Mind you, he is still First Lord of the Treasury. Ah well, never mind.

  3. In fairness, snooker players only spend half their time making life difficult for their opponents. When an opportunity arises, they go for the jug.
    This election has been more like a Tour de France which is all peleton. No sprinters, no climbers, no-one more than a wheel’s width from anyone else.
    I fantasise about an election where the parties were led by Hague (or maybe Boz), Cable and Mandelson. What great entertainment we might have had.

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